Who did I vote for?
Real people from the 2024 Cooperative Election Study introduce themselves in one sentence. You guess how likely it is they voted for Trump. Depending on difficulty, you may ask for hints. Then find out if you were right or wrong--and how surprising that is!
Difficulty
How many voters
… voters loaded.
How scoring works
Each voter is worth up to 1,000 points. Say 100 percent and be right and you get all 1,000; say 100 percent and be wrong and you get nothing. Saying 50 percent always earns 750. In between, points are 1,000 × (1 − error²), where error is the gap between your probability and what happened. This is the Brier score turned upside down, so hedging is safe but knowing something pays.
After each answer you see what a logistic regression predicted for that person, using their age, race, gender, education, religion, income, marital status, and whether they have children. The model never sees party identification. Green means 900 points or more, amber 750 to 899, red below 750.
Results
The model is a logistic regression on age, race, gender, education, religion, income, marital status, and children. It never sees party identification.
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